It goes without saying that there are breakout players each and every year, however, this season is going to produce more under the radar fantasy studs then any year I remember in recent history. The elite of the league seem to be shrinking in numbers, at every position. This has lead to the talent pool in the middle rounds being saturated. There isn't as big a drop off from say the 6th ranked wide receiver, to the 12th ranked wide receiver as there was at one time. This doesn't mean you can just roll the dice and come up with doubles every pick. But if you are diligent you can win your league during the draft between rounds 7 and 12. In this feature we will cover who we believe are the top 5 breakout candidates in the NFL. When selecting these 5 players I've looked at the potential ceiling these players could realistically have. A player that I believe will go from 3 TD's to 9 TD's would obviously be a prime candidate. Some of these players may not go to the probowl this year, but their level of improvement will warrant them being selected much higher then you will find them in your generic fantasy football magazine.
5. Alex Smith (QB ) San Fransisco 49ers
ESPN Ranking ( 23 ) Cut and Dry Ranking ( 14 )
2009 - 18td 12int, 2350 yards.
2010 - 25td 14int, 3045 yards. (proj)
- Start by ripping up any ESPN draft kit material you may have, because their player rankings are absolutely nonsensical! With Smith ranked at 23rd among QB's they then have QB's 14th-22nd throwing fewer touchdowns then him. Head scratching, I know. They also ranked the highly unproven Kevin Kolb at 12 while throwing just 20 touchdowns, oddly, the same amount they have given Smith. You can make an argument, a very good one, that Smith actually has a better supporting cast around him in Crabtree, Morgan, Vernon Davis and Gore. Without even looking at the Eagle and 49er schedules, give me Smiths opponents. This is exibit A on why drafters should never blindly follow a 3rd party big board. Do your own work, or let me do it for you!, and watch the rewards roll in all season long! So realize that Smith will be sitting there for a while and grab him as your back up quarterback in the middle rounds. If you're in a two QB league, this will really benefit you and you should target Smith a bit earlier to ensure you are rewarded with a quality number 2 QB.
4. Mohamed Massaquoi ( WR ) Cleveland Browns
ESPN Ranking (56 ) Cut and Dry Ranking ( 36 )
2009 - 34-624-3 18.4avg
2010 - 58-962-7 16.6avg(proj)
- Nothing is sexy about picking any Cleveland Brown early in this years draft. Outside of selecting one of their potential sleeper RB's Harrison or Hardesty, Massaquoi is the only other fantasy viable player. It can be hard at times to use the old " someone needs to catch the ball there " argument, but it rings true. Brian Robiske and Joshua Cribbs are the other two options in the passing game, but neither have the potential upside of a Mohammad Massaquoi. Only two players averaged more per catch last year then Massaquoi so he's shown he has the ability to get down field and make big plays. With a years experience under his belt I would expect his TD numbers to double, and for him to see sizable increases in catches and yards. The Browns won't light the world on fire by any means, but if you draft lots of RB depth early, and wait on WR's, and are looking for a number 3 guy, Massaquoi is him.
3. Brandon Jacobs ( RB ) New York Giants
ESPN Ranking (24) Cut and Dry Ranking ( 16 )
2009 224-835-5 3.7avg
2010 - 289-1205-10 4.2avg(proj)
- One year removed from 15 touchdowns, granted, it was one bad year, isn't enough for me to write off Brandon Jacobs who was on the path to become the NFL's next touchdown machine at runningback. Jacobs will continue to be the Giants main scoring threat on the ground, even while splitting carries with Ahmad Bradshaw. It's clear who the redzone RB will continue to be. I'm viewing Jacobs 09 campaign as a mere bump in the road, and personal motivation to bounce back in a big way this year. Grabbing him as your 2nd or 3rd RB is absolutely robbery judged on where he is being selected in most drafts. Buy with confidence this year.
2. Pierre Garcon ( WR ) Indianapolis Colts
ESPN Ranking ( 26 ) Cut and Dry Ranking ( 14 )
2009 - 47-765-4 16.3avg
2010 - 72-1094-8 15.1avg(proj)
- Draft now or forever hold your peace. If you don't get Garcon on your roster this year, then you're going to miss out. There is no question in my mind that he will be to Reggie Wayne, what Wayne was to Marvin Harrison. These two will both be 1000 yard WR's this year, and this season could be the last time Wayne out performs Garcon statistically. Garcon is a pure blooded play maker, when he gets the ball in his hands, and that's exactly where it ends up every time Manning throws his way, he is a threat to go all the way. I warn you now, if you plan on waiting on him as long as the standard draft rankings suggest you should, you will regret it. He will be an elite number 2 receiver for any fantasy team.
1. Hakeem Nicks ( WR ) New York Giants
ESPN Ranking ( 25 ) Cut and Dry Ranking ( 9 )
2009 - 47-790-6 16.8avg
2010 - 78-1272-10 16.3(proj)
- The NFL is not ready for Hakeem Nicks, it's that simple. This is not a 2nd year production increase prediction. This is a guarantee that Nicks will be a top 10 WR after this year concludes. Steve Smith is, and will not be the number 1 WR in the big apple. Nicks is that man and will see the number of times he's targeted increase greatly. His rookie performance was in just 14 games. Dictate the draft, don't let it dictate to you! This expression rings loudly true with a player like Hakeem Nicks. He will be a top 30 overall fantasy contributor this year making him a keeper worthy player for the 2011 season. Don't say we didn't let you know ahead of time!
Break out player of the year - Hakeem Nicks ( New York Giants )
Page IV :CP's top 25 Fantasy Big Board
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I am of the believe that league drafts are won in the middle-late rounds, but this doesn't do justice to just how important the first 2 rounds of a draft really are. Not everyone has the ability, knowledge, or even plain luck to hit on a runningback in the 8th round, or a wide receiver in the 10th round. So if you miss, or bust with your 1st or 2nd round pick, it could dramatically set back your entire season. Just ask Steven Jackson owners that drafted SJ 2nd overall after his 2006 season. He dropped from 13 TD's to 5 TD's, rushed for 1000 yards instead of 1500 and worst of all went from 90 receptions and 800 yards to 38 receptions and 271 yards. To win your league in 2007 that year you would have needed Tom Brady after missing on Jackson and not having a selection again until 19th overall. This is just one example. The point is, do everything you can to make the smartest determination for who will produce for you, sometimes injuries happen and you just can't predict it. But often, you can see declines comings for multiple reasons. Remember, the big boards that you draft with THIS year, are often slanted towards what happened LAST year. Not this big board, here are your top 25 overall players for 2010.
Rankings done with standard scoring applied. ( + .5ppr )
1. Adrian Peterson : RB - Minnestoa Vikings ^
- Touchdowns, and consistency give Peterson the edge for me over Johnson. Peterson is an absolutely beast with the ball and only looks better as each year goes bye, he is truly only entering his prime now. Look for a touchdown per game average with 1700 yards.
2. Chris Johnson : RB - Tennessee Titans
- Lightning never strikes twice. I'll be blunt, I don't think CJ2K can do it again, 2000 yards that is. Johnson scored 4 less touchdowns then AP while rushing for about 700 more yards, that doesn't quite add up too me. I would expect his touchdowns to stay about the same while his per game yardage drops by about 25 yards, leaving him with around 1600 for the season.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew : RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
- If Jack Del Rio ever gives MJD consistent carries, he will be the best back in the NFL, in both games versus the Titans last year, he totaled 14 carries, 7 per game!? The crazy thing was he rushed for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns on those 14 carries! Consistency is the name of the game. He and Peterson are in a league of their own when it comes to finding the endzone.
4. Frank Gore : RB - San Fransisco 49ers
- I believe the 49ers could be in contention for a 1st round playoff bye this year, I think they'll be that good. Frank Gore is the center piece of that offense, and when healthy is among the leagues elite. The 49ers beefed up an already good offensive line by selecting Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. Scary. Gore missed 3 games last year and still had 1110 yards and 10 touchdowns. Did I mention he caught 50 balls, scoring on 3 of those?
5. Ray Rice : RB - Baltimore Ravens
- Lighting up the NFL doesn't do justice to what Ray Rice did last year. He averaged a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry which is rare in today's NFL if you get 250 carries and your names not Chris Johnson. I hear arguments for Rice not being worth a top 5 pick because he's not a touchdown machine, true, McGahee is on the roster still, and should steal a few touchdowns away. But when you rack up over 2000 yards of total offense and are on one of the best teams in the National Football League, does it really matter?
6. Rashard Mendenhall : RB - Pittsburgh Steelers ^
- Buckle up folks, because we're going to see a lot of Rashard Mendenhall this season. With Ben out for the 1st part of the season this year Mendenhall will be leaned on to provide the scoring on offense. He rushed for 1100 yards and 7 touchdowns last year on a limited number of carries, 242. He will be heavily leaned on this year likely seeing the rock in his bread basket over 300 times.
7. Steven Jackson : RB - St.Louis Rams
- Would someone like to tell me how Steven Jackson managed to rush for 1400 yards last year? On a team that finished last in the NFL. Sure he only scored 4 times, but the man can only do so much. The Rams have no where to go but up from here. Jackson is the offense, even with Bradford there this year, expect SJ's catches to bounce up by about 20 as well. The check down should be Sam's best friend this year.
8. Peyton Manning : QB - Indianapolis Colts ^
- Sleeper alert!! Did you get a laugh out of that? Let me tell you why it's true. Over the past 3 years, Peyton Mannings pass attempts, and completions are going in one direction. Up, up and up! That will continue this season. Expect 400 completions and over 600 attempts! Indianapolis does not having the running game they had even a few years ago when Addai and Rhodes were carrying the ball for them. The offensive line has also suffered with the retirement of Tarik Glenn. Jeff Saturday is the next shoe to drop. We won't see 2004 Peyton, but he'll be somewhere in between there and last years numbers. Worthy of a top 10 pick once the first 7 runningbacks are selected.
9. Michael Turner : RB - Atlanta Falcons
- I believe the Falcons are evolving, Matt Ryans development is right on schedule and he is poised to take the next step this season. He and Roddy White are going to be a border line top 5 QB-WR combo after this year. This will lead to never again seeing 370 carries from Michael Turner like we did in 2008! Forget about that player. He's gone. That said Turner is still the number 1 threat on the ground, and has the potential to score 10 times. But his 1700 yard days are over. Expect about 1250 and 11 or 12 touchdowns this year, still a number one RB, but not the elite option some thought he could be after 2008.
10. Andre Johnson : WR - Houston Texans
- There is no better, more complete WR in the game right now then Andre Johnson. He is an absolutely lock for 100-1400-10. You can't under-rate that kind of production out of a wide receiver who often have tendencies to fluctuations in their production. Matt Schaub has came into his own the last 2 seasons and Andre has benefited. (clearly goes both ways) Johnson could truly break out this year and score 14-16 times this season. Draft with total confidence.
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11. Chris "Beanie" Wells : RB - Arizona Cardinals ^
- Forget the post-Kurt Warner talk, and rumors of a slight shift in philosophy to a more run based attack, Wells is flat out primed to break out. A power back with the speed and foot quickness to not only be a great redzone RB, but also between the 20's. Hightower will still see action on some passing downs, 3rd and long etc. But Wells could have a Brandon Jacobs 2008 type impact this year. Double digit + touchdowns are in his sights.
12. Aaron Rodgers : QB - Green Bay Packers
- If the Packers solve their offensive line problems, Aaron Rodgers has the ability to be the best quarterback in the league today. They just need him on his feet obviously. Despite the rediculous amount of sacks he took like year, and constantly making plays under pressure, Rodgers threw more touchdowns then Tom Brady, Matt Schaub and Phillip Rivers. If you take into account his rushing ability, which you need to. He's a no brainer here behind Peyton Manning.
13. Ryan Grant : RB - Green Bay Packers
- So undervalued by most rankings. Grant does nothing flashy, nothing great, but everything really well. His 1250 yards, 11 touchdowns and 25 pass receptions should not be over looked. He is the option at RB for the Packers, something that is rare now in the NFL. The offense around him is great, which can be very comforting. If you're selecting early in the 2nd round you could easily end up with a killer RB tandem of Steven Jackson and Ryan Grant.
14. Roddy White : WR - Atlanta Falcons
- Roddy White is my Ryan Grant of wide receivers. He gets it done, without the superstar hype that many others receive. He is Ryan's guy, goes without saying. When you have the potential to catch 90 passes and score double digit touchdowns, I think you deserve a little more respect then White is getting.
15. Randy Moss : WR - New England Patriots
- Ladies and gentlemen. Buy high. Don't let Randy moss make it past pick 15 in your draft. Moss is entering the final year of his contract, which will likely be, his final contract period. We've seen the result of a motivated Randy Moss. He has scored at least 11 touchdowns every year he has played in New England, and that year was with Matt Cassel in 2008. Brady and Moss should both see improvement in their play this year. The Patriot offense has reloaded with the additions of two 3rd rd WR's, Tory Holt and 2 rookie pass catching tight ends. Gone are the days of Moss seeing umbrella coverage over the top on every single play. The field should open up for him a lot this year.
16 Miles Austin : WR - Dallas Cowboys ^
- Believe the hype. Because Miles will show this year that it's truly not hype at all. The Dallas Cowboys have one of the most potent offenses in the league, Austin is now the feature piece of that. After not producing much in the first few weeks of the season Miles absolutely exploded against the Chiefs in week 5. The best thing about Austins game is his nose for the goal line. He scored 11 times last year, and there is no reason to think he will not do it again this year. The chemistry between he and Romo is very evident.
17. Drew Brees : QB - New Orleans Saints
- I believe we may be looking at a bit of a hangover for the Saints this year, it's somewhat cliche to say after a superbowl win, but it's not questionable that every team will see the Saints coming from a while away this year, that means Brees is going to have to work that much harder. I believe he will. But a slight decline in production is likely to occur this year. 32tds and 16ints will still make him the 3rd best quarterback on this list, so don't fear, draft him as your number one QB late in the 2nd round when the value at WR and RB has thinned out.
18. Larry Fitzgerald : WR - Arizona Cardinals v
- One of the puzzles of this years fantasy football season is what will happen with Larry in the desert. No more Warner, and many have concerns that Leinart or Anderson aren't going to provide the same quality play that Warner did. Boldin is now in Baltimore as well, but it shouldn't hurt Larry to much, as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet will provide adequate targets on the field to keep most double teams off Larry's side of the field. He only had 1000 yards last year, and his per catch average was 11.3, I don't expect that number to improve with Lienart throwing the ball. 75-950-12 could be in Fitzgeralds future this year, still very good, but Andre Johnson, Roddy White and even Miles Austin should be considered as options first.
19. Knowshon Moreno : RB - Denver Broncos
- Moreno had a very quiet year in terms of fantasy hype, which is surprising because he had 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. He's without question the best runningback available at this point of the draft, and with serious keeper potential, you should be very pleased about it. Denver has other options at RB, but no one close to Moreno's pedigree. He will rush for over 1250 yards this year, and should improve his receiving numbers to about 50 catches, up from 28 last year.
20. Reggie Wayne : WR - Indianapolis Colts
- Reggie has proven to be a model of consistency in the NFL. However, I see a few red flags this year in Wayne still being a top 3-4 fantasy wide receiver. First of all, is the Pierre Garcon effect. As we saw late last year, and especially in the playoffs. Clark and Wayne have some new competition for favorite toy in the Colts sandbox now. Garcon made big plays down the stretch with Peyton making him look like a Chris Carter-Terrell Owens hybrid. Wayne also averaged just 12.6 per catch, his lowest output since 2003. Also, when excluding his rookie season when he did not score at all, he only averages 8 touchdowns per year. Seeing that he has never had back to back double digit touchdown season, and is now 31, I don't see him surpassing his numbers from last year.
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21. Jonathan Stewart : RB - Carolina Panthers ^
- Over DeAngelo Williams?! Yup! Roll reversal coming this year in Carolina! I think this will be Stewart's year to set the tone for the running game and offense in general, with Williams coming off the bench to spell him and add a change of pace in the other direction! These guys are both killer, and you truly can't go wrong. If it were possible, get both! But that will be difficult as they are both rated around the same area. Stewart will rush for more yards this year, and score more touchdowns, I have him going before Williams.
22. Sidney Rice : WR - Minnesota Vikings
- I remember loving Rice coming out of the University of South Carolina, he was as raw as they come, and still very young. I thought he had the ability to produce right away, but that obviously took a few years. But he's here folks. The next Randy Moss in terms of unearthly physical ability! Favre needs to come back ( which he will ) for this ranking to hold up, but post Favre, the Vikings need a running mate for Rice. A 1st round QB should be in their future next April. Rice will produce similar numbers with the possibility of scoring 10-12 td's this year rather then 8.
23. Brandon Marshall : WR - Miami Dolphins
- Marhsall should make Chad Henne a border line top 10-12 quarterback this year. His skill ranks him neck and neck with any wide receiver you can think of. He gets under rated because he doesn't have Manning, Brady, Schaub or Romo throwing to him like other WR's ahead of him have. But that won't stop him. With defense's worried about stopping the bone crushing Dolphin running attack Marshall should have his way with many defensive backs this season. 100 catches again this year is very imaginable. He will also be the teams number 1 redzone threat through the air, so the sky is really the limit for Marshall, he can be as good as he wants to be.
24. Hakeem Nicks : WR - New York Giants ^
- Our breakout player of the year just cracks the top 25. The potential around Nicks was outlined earlier in this edition. But we don't mind reiterating! When you catch 47 passes for 700 yards, on a team that wanted to run the ball, and had another WR catch over 100 passes, you've had yourself one hell of a year. What's that? You were a rookie as well?! Yikes. You have to be really not paying attention to what Nicks did on the field last year to miss his ability being that of a future probowl receiver in this league. Again, no praise or payment is necessary, we'll just accept thank you's come late December!
25. Shonn Greene : RB - Shonn Grenne v
- Many projects seem to be over valuing Shonn Greene in our eyes. Going from 500 yards last year, too 1200 and double digits touchdowns isn't exactly a cake walk. He carried the load, one year in college where he ran wild over opponents carrying 300 times. But thus far in the NFL has career the ball 20 times a total of zero times. With Tomlinson joining him in New York we think they're going to be a very effective combo, but are a bit more conservative in our projections of his individual production. He has no pass catching ability, and will rely on touchdowns for production, which is apparently what LT was brought in for as well. We will have to see how it all shakes out, we like him here at 25 overall though, and see a 950 yard, 8 touchdown season for Greene.
Letter to the readers
This concludes the first edition of the magazine, we introduced you too what fantasy football is all about, provided you with some draft strategies to help the rookie and veteran players maneuver through their drafts and profiled the different personalities that you will surely run into during your time playing fantasy football. Finally we have concluded with our top 25 big board that we hope gives you a good base for helping you select the best players for you in the early rounds of your drafts. Look forward to our next edition which will be released sometime in August when training camps and the pre-season are in full swing!
Thank you for reading.
Tim Stephenson
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1 comment:
Frenchy Thomas getting no love!
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