As a CHL season ticket holder of the Halifax Mooseheads, and general fan of Canadian Junior Hockey there will no doubt be a North American bias to this mock draft, so know that going into this. I had requested some European game tape from Jarmo Kekäläinen, but he tells me he lost it during a luggage change in Tampere Finland where he met with Aleksander Barkov's parents on a recent scouting trip. I'm not buying it. Jarmo is definitely a "Watcher" from Fox hit show Fringe. He has the secrets to the universe (How to strike gold with NHL draft picks) and he's not sharing.
Before further slandering the good name of Mr.Kekäläinen with my outrageous conspiracy theories, lets take a look at my mock draft for the first 14 lottery selections of this years NHL entry draft.
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Nathan MacKinnon :Center :Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
This selection is going to be a point of contention among hockey fans for the next 2 months. MacKinnon vs Jones. The consensus since the beginning of the 2012/2013 CHL season has shifted from MacKinnon to Jones as the 1st overall pick in this years draft. I contested all year that until we knew who held the 1st pick, we couldn't really answer who the pick will be. Scouts merely rank players according to who they feel the top North America and European skates are. This is a very challenging task when talking about a 6'4 smooth skating, mobile, offensive and shut-down defenseman and a 6'0, 190lb center who is an elite skater with a rare combination of play making and goal scoring ability. It is unusual that junior forward prospects warrant the descriptions of sniper, power forward and play maker. MacKinnon has an extremely balanced set of skills, he does everything well, and many things at an exceptional level. He will likely find himself centring Colorados 3rd line to start the year in 2013.
photo credit: David Chan
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Seth Jones :Defenseman :Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
I have made my feelings about Seth Jones know in an article written in January of this year, Seth Jones Article. The kid is as close to can't miss as you can get when drafting junior hockey players. Why not have him going number 1 in this draft then? History. I'm a big believer understanding our history, in this case, the history of the NHL draft. The numbers do not lie when digging deeper into defenseman that have gone first overall in the NHL draft in the past. Since 1970 ten defensman have been selected first overall in the draft, I would considering one of them worthy of that 1st overall selection, Dennis Potvin (1973). The most recent defenseman taken 1st overall, and the only once in recent memory, since 1996, was Erik Johnson is 2006. This 1 case in the last 17 years has turned out to be the wrong choice, we saw Johnson followed by Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel. You make the call. All this said, I think Jones will be the best defenseman from this class, and a perennial all-star. Poor Florida, right?
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Jonathan Drouin :Left Wing :Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
After drooling over MacKinnon and Jones to start this draft, I will follow it by saying that Tampa Bay is getting who I believe is the best player in this draft at 3rd overall. Makes good sense right? I just don't believe Colorado or Florida will have the gumption to take a swing for the fences and take Drouin. Words like dynamic, and game changer likely get thrown around far to much and with to high of frequency but Jonathan Drouin is the biggest game changer available this year. His physical skills as a skater, puck handler and passer are already at an elite NHL level but even superior to those quality is the famous and mysterious, "Hockey sense". Hockey IQ, call it what you want. Drouin has this in spades. You have to be careful when doing this, but I have not personally seen a hockey player so smart since Sidney Crosby. The way Drouin changes the game for his other 4 teammates on the ice with him is awe inspiring, his ability to move with the puck, while using his lazer x-ray vision to survey the ice and then select the pass with the highest probability of success is down right scary. His 2.14 PPG average was tops in the CHL this year, and all he's done during Halifax's Q league championship run is lead the team in scoring with 29 points in 12 games as of the date this is being written. This is a jump in his PPG avg from the regular season from 2.14 to 2.42. Now he could potential play on a line with Steven Stamkos and 2013 Art Ross winner Martin St.Louis. #notfair
photo credit: David Chan
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Aleksander Barkov :Center :Tappara (SM-I)
Nashville is completely allergic to offense, Barkov will be the first step in the right direction to correcting this. Barkov is a big bodied center who almost registered a point per game while playing against MEN in Finland. This has lead some to rank him higher then Drouin, I'm not that high on him, but from my limited looks at him I like him more then any draft eligible forward that doesn't play for the Mooseheads. I would like Sean Monahan in this spot as well but feel that Barkov has a higher offensive ceiling which for the Predators, needs to be top priority.
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Anthony Mantha :Right Wing :Val'dor (QMJHL)
The cupboards are bare on the wings in Hurricane country and Mantha is one of the few high end winger prospects this year that have NHL ready size and scoring ability. The QMJHL will have a banner year in terms of the numbers of players they see drafted in the NHL draft this year. If I asked you who lead this highly skilled league in scoring this year most would guess one of the Halifax stars, they'd be wrong. Anthony Mantha put up a blistering 50 goals in 67 games this year with Val'dor. His 89 point season put him 10th in Q league scoring this year for the 10th place Foreur's. Val'dor would lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs but Mantha still managed a respectable 12 points in 9 playoff games. He is the prototypical goal scoring power forward who's game should translate very well to the pro level. A responsible defensive player who I have visions of playing right wing on a Jordan Staal centred 2nd line for years to come.
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Sean Monahan :Center :Ottawa 67's (OHL)
I'm sure Calgary Flames fans had visions of adding a top 3 player in this draft, but after managing to play themselves out of contention for those elite picks, they land at 6th overall. I would feel bad for them if they still didn't have the opportunity to draft the future captain of their franchise, Sean Monahan. After playing 3 full seasons for the 67's before becoming draft eligable, Monahan has been able to develop all areas of his game to put him in a position to be a top 10 all around NHL draft pick this year. Touted as the best defensive forward available this year, Monahan brings the intangibles that all NHL coaches covet! The one negative, and calling it a negative is a stretch, is that more of an offensive jump was expected out of Monahan this year. After tallying 78 points in his 2nd season with Ottawa, he match that 78 points again this year. This can however be attributed to playing on the leagues last place team with very little talent surrounding him. Ottawa traded away both Tyler Graovac and Cody Ceci. The potential is there for Monahan to be the best two way forward to come out of this years draft class and Calgary is in great need of a leadership overhaul while still drafting a player who can contribute offensively on the teams top line down the road.
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- Nikita Zadorov :Defenseman :London Knights (OHL)
I've taken to a nic-name I thought of for London Knight defenseman Nikita Zadorov, Nik Nasty. After getting my first live look at Zadorov in the CHL top prospect practices and eventually the game, I was fairly convinced that we were looking at the best defenseman who wasn't keeping up with the Joneses. Zadorov has been steadily moving on up the draft board inside my head however. I don't see there being a better choice for Craig MacTavish to make at this spot in the draft. Nik Nasty is everything that the Edmonton Oilers have not been over the past 4-5 years. He is big (huge), he is mean, and he surprisingly has a fair bit of offensive flare to his game which by reputation is predominately defensive. On a stacked London Knights team, he managed to tie for the +/- lead with Max Domi, an impressive +33. A higher rating then both 1st and 2nd round NHL draft picks, Olli Maatta and Scott Harrington. Zadorov has shutdown potential written all over his game. The hits that I saw him lay in the neutral zone during the CHL top prospects game vs the best and fastest CHL players in the country answered any mobility questions I had about him, for 6'5 230 lbs, the kid can move, and when he closed on skaters along the boards, they paid the price.
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Darnell Nurse :Defenseman :Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds (OHL)
Another young defensman I had the pleasure of watching at the prospects game this year. Darnell Nurse. He beautifully fits the new "mold" of NHL defenseman. He is an excellent skater, who loves to jump in the rush and contribute offensively when appropriate yet still possess tremendous defensive awareness and edge to his game. The offensive upside is definitely there, and it is propelled by how well Nurse skates and handles the puck. Buffalo has been cleaned out after this year, and defense is becoming a glaring need. In spite of his high skill level, I do believe it would be wise to let Darnell develop at an appropriate pace, Buffalo is not going to be good for a few years, and Nurse will be ready to make the jump and contribute to their resurgence at that time.
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- Valeri Nichushkin :Right Wing :Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL)
This is one of the toughest players and spots for me in this draft. There is the always present "Russian Factor" when evaluating players coming from the KHL to the NHL. Nichuskin just signed with the Moscow Dynamo of the KHL which all but ensures that he's two full seasons away from making his début in the NHL. The other factor with drafting these young Russian stars is, what kind of support system does the team have in place in terms of current Russian born pros who can insulate and mentor the young prospect. I believe there is merit to this. With Kovalchuk, Volchenkov, Zubrus and Ponikarovsky all on the roster it could be the ideal situation to landing Nichuskin in the garden state as soon as possible.
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Elias Lindholm :Center :Byrnas (SEL)
By all accounts, Lindholm would be the one player many would consider the top defensive forward in this years draft, not Sean Monahan as I have said. As I mentioned in my opening, my ability to form an opinion on many of these European skaters was derailed by that swindling trickster Jarmo Kekäläinen, that may be the cause for having Lindholm falling to the stars here at 10, rather then in the top 6 where you will find him in most 2013 NHL mock drafts. With regards to Dallas, I can't see them being to disappointed with this. They are a team that is teetering on that description of a rebuilding team. Was pleased to see Joe Nieuwendyk fired however, trading Michael Ryder AND a 3rd round pick for Eric Cole and his contract should get you fired. This is a great step towards building top quality depth down the middle in Dallas. Jamie Benn, Elias Lindholm, Vern Fiddler and Cody Eaken could be very formidable in the coming years.
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- Zach Fucale :Goaltender :Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
The time has come Philadelphia, no more side tracks to far off galaxies, or scrapping by with a rotation of back up quality goalies, it's time to lock that position up for the future. Zach Fucale is the consensus top goalie in this years draft, and my amateur eye for goalie talent can verify this by roughly 50 games which I have seen Zach play in. Without coming out and directly making this comparison I see a lot of similarities in style between Fucale, and Montreal Canadiens goalie, Carey Price. Composure, lateral movement and positioning in the net are Fucales strong suits. I would categorize him as a tactician who is extremely scrutinous in his preparation. He rose to prominence as an NHL draft prospect last year when he took the reigns in the Mooseheads net due to an injury to starter, Anthony Terenzio on October 22nd, and did not look back, starting 29 or 33 games which took the team to the end of January, and from that point he started all games for the Mooseheads including a playoff run which eventually ended in the 3rd round of the playoffs, as a 16 year old. He followed that up with a 45-5-2-1 regular season this year, and has since gone 12-0 in the playoffs with a GAA of 2.02 and a save % of .903 Bottom line here is that Zach Fucale is very good, and the Flyers haven't been able to consistently say that about one of their goalies in a very long time.
photo credit: David Chan
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Hunter Shinkaruk :Center :Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
This pick screams Jeff Skinner to me. Similar offensive players who are on the small size who many believe will need time to adjust to the pro game. Stature doubting aside, Shinkaruk just puts pucks in the net. After an eye opening 49 goal season with the Medicine Hat Tigers last year, Shinkaruk posted a respectable 37 goals this year. Phoenix lacks this type of high end skill player and I feel goal scoring will be scarce in the desert of the next couple seasons so Shinkaruk makes a ton of sense to me.
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Curtis Lazar :Center :Edmonton Oilkings (WHL)
Lazar is another kid that made an impression on me during top prospects weekend. His compete level appears to be through the roof. When went as far to drop the gloves with Sault Ste Marie Greyhound defenseman Darnell Nurse and hold his own despite giving up close to half a foot to Nurse. Lazar is going to score more goals then he sets up and will go to the dirty areas of the ice needed to create those scoring opportunities. I believe he and Mark Scheifele are going to be great center pieces for the Winnipeg franchise as they build towards playoff contention.
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Frederick Gauthier :Center :Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)
I'm sure Jarmo will take Rasmus Ristolainen, the Finnish defenseman who plays with TPS of the SM-Liiga here, but for once, I have the power, and he does not! I like Frederick Gauthier as the first of 3 Columbus Blue jacket picks in this years draft. Gauthier got off to a blazing hot start to his rookie campaign as a 17 year old with the Oceanic this season, registering 20 points in his first 17 games. He finished the year ice cold however, scoring 9 points in his final 20 games. All told, he put up a solid 60 point season which given his tremendous athletic ability and raw upside as a prospect is very appealing. He also just put in a great effort in the U18 gold medal game versus the Americans in Sochi Russia scoring the winning goal which resulted in a 3-2 Canada victory. At 6'4 and 200 lbs NHL teams are going to be drooling over the potential that Gauthier has to be large skilled NHL center. He can however play the wing which is becoming more popular a move when integrating young forwards into NHL line ups, (see Alex Galchenyuk). Gauthier will be back in Rimouski next year however, likely taking his game to another level as a 19 year old in only his 2nd junior season. His blend of size and speed will be to much for many QMJHL defenses in the 2013/2014 season.
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Well there it is. As the NHL playoffs progress, and teams are slotted in behind the top 14 lottery teams, I will be adding them to complete the entire first round, maybe shifting a guy up or down a few spots as the draft picture begins to become a bit more clear. For now, I am pleased with this top 14! What I really want to know however, is does Jarmo Kekäläinen agree? and does he want to offer me a job holding a clip board for the Columbus Blue Jackets scouting department after they take Gauthier this June and decide to come back to the QMJHL talent well in future years.
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